Wolverhampton vs Brighton preview, 5 Oct 2025: xG form

05 Oct 13:00

J. Gillett

This match has been played.

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BRI favoured away from home, but only just.

WOL32%Draw31%BHA38%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Wolves1.2Brighton1.3

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

WOL attack

LW0.35

CF0.71

RW0.47

CAM0.35

CDM0.18

CM0.71

LB0.35

CB0.06

RB0.29

PROWOL attack report PROBRI defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PROWOL shape report PROBRI shape report

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

WOL3 scored from 7.8 xG-4.8

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Deep blockVery high line

Possession-basedVery direct

Very scrappyTechnical

Mixed responseCounter-presses

Fairly physicalFairly physical

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

WOL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mosquera	Throw-ins	60	1.2
Bueno	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	2.4
Larsen	Penalties	2	1.5
Hee-Chan	Penalties	1	0.8
Arokodare	Penalties	1	0.8
Armstrong	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

21%

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck

PROWOL set pieces PROBRI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

WolverhamptonWolves
1-1
BrightonBrighton
Verbruggen (OG) 21'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers