Wolverhampton vs Brentford preview, 20 Dec 2025: xG form

20 Dec 15:00

M. Donohue

This match has been played.

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BRE favoured away from home, but only just.

WOL32%Draw30%BRE37%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Wolves1.2Brentford1.3

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

WOL attack

LW0.35

CF0.71

RW0.47

CAM0.35

CDM0.18

CM0.71

LB0.35

CB0.06

RB0.29

PROWOL attack report PROBRE defence report

Mixed responseHeavy counter-press

PROWOL shape report PROBRE shape report

BRE attack

LW0.24

CF0.76

RW0.41

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.00

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

WOL3 scored from 7.8 xG-4.8

BRE7 scored from 9.2 xG-2.2

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Deep blockSits deeper

Very scrappyMiddling control

Very directVery direct

Takes risksVery bold

Fairly physicalPhysically dominant

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

WOL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mosquera	Throw-ins	60	1.2
Bueno	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	2.4
Larsen	Penalties	2	1.5
Hee-Chan	Penalties	1	0.8
Arokodare	Penalties	1	0.8
Armstrong	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

21%

BRE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Kayode	Throw-ins	170	3.3
Jensen	Corners L and R, 4 short	65	3.0
Damsgaard	Corners L and R, 6 short	44	2.6
Janelt

PROWOL set pieces PROBRE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

32%

Throw-ins

28%

WolverhamptonWolves
0-2
BrentfordBrentford

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers