Sunderland vs Aston Villa preview, 21 Sep 2025: xG form

21 Sep 13:00

S. Barrott

This match has been played.

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AVL favoured away from home, but only just.

SUN32%Draw30%AVL38%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Sunderland1.2Villa1.3

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

SUN attack

LW0.35

CF0.29

RW0.29

CAM0.00

CDM0.12

CM0.24

LB0.00

CB0.12

RB0.06

PROSUN attack report PROAVL defence report

CautiousVery bold

PROSUN shape report PROAVL shape report

AVL attack

LW0.12

CF0.29

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.12

CB0.24

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

SUN9 scored from 6.1 xG+2.9

AVL13 scored from 10.9 xG+2.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Patient build-upFairly direct

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Very centralEven width

Drops right offSits off

Mid-blockPresses higher

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

SUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mukiele	Throw-ins	112	1.8
Xhaka	Free kicks	80	2.2
Xhaka	Corners R, 9 short	61	1.9
Fée	Corners L and R, 6 short	50	1.7
Fée	Penalties	4	3.0
Diarra	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

32%

Corners

31%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cash	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	1.6
Cash	Throw-ins	41	0.2
Digne	Corners L and R, 9 short	40	2.4
Tielemans

PROSUN set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

27%

SunderlandSunderland
1-1
Aston VillaVilla
Isidor 75'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers