Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa preview, 12 Apr 2026: xG form

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This match has been played.

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NFO favoured at home, but only just.

NFO38%Draw29%AVL33%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Forest1.4Villa1.3

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NFO attack

LW0.31

CF0.50

RW0.38

CAM0.13

CDM0.25

CM0.19

LB0.06

CB0.13

RB0.19

PRONFO attack report PROAVL defence report

Very centralVery wide

PRONFO shape report PROAVL shape report

Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1M. Gibbs-White(C)MF	£7.4m	4.9%
2O. WatkinsFW	£8.5m	8.1%
3M. RogersMF	£7.5m	24.4%

PROFantasy hub, projections

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1M. Gibbs-White(C)MF	£7.4m	4.9%
2O. WatkinsFW	£8.5m	8.1%
3M. RogersMF	£7.5m	24.4%

PROFantasy hub, projections

Player	Rating					Rotation
O. WatkinsCF · AVL	7.1#6	31%	7%	0.54	81%	Low	0.37
M. Gibbs-WhiteCAM · NFO	--	23%	11%	0.39	99%	Low	0.23
M. RogersCAM · AVL	--	22%	10%	0.34	100%	Low	0.45
Igor JesusCF · NFO	6.1#17	21%	7%	0.42	73%	Low	0.27
C. Hudson-OdoiWG · NFO	--	11%	8%	0.33	59%	Medium	0.17
T. AwoniyiCF · NFO	7.0-	10%	2%	0.47	28%	High	0.00

46 more players

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Anderson	Corners L and R, 12 short	88	2.8
Anderson	Free kicks	57	0.6
Hutchinson	Corners R, 11 short	46	1.3
Anderson	Penalties	1	0.8
Gibbs-White	Penalties	1	0.8
Jesus	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

42%

Throw-ins

32%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cash	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	1.6
Cash	Throw-ins	41	0.2
Digne	Corners L and R, 9 short	40	2.4
Tielemans

PRONFO set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

Nottingham ForestForest
1-1
Aston VillaVilla
Williams 37'

Key players

Set-piece takers

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Nottingham Forest formLDDWD

Aston Villa formLLLWD

Head-to-head · last 5

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

Key players

Set-piece takers