Newcastle Utd vs Everton preview, 28 Feb 2026: xG form

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This match has been played.

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NEW favoured at home, but only just.

NEW44%Draw28%EVE27%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Newcastle1.5Everton1.2

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NEW attack

LW0.18

CF0.53

RW0.12

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.12

LB0.06

CB0.29

RB0.00

PRONEW attack report PROEVE defence report

Possession-basedVery direct

PRONEW shape report PROEVE shape report

Branthwaite 19'
Beto 33'
Barry 82'

Premier League 2025/2026

GW28

28 Feb 15:00

S. Attwell

EVE attack

LW0.06

CF0.47

RW0.35

CAM0.12

CDM0.18

CM0.24

LB0.18

CB0.29

RB0.29

Last 6, goals vs xG

NEW8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

EVE8 scored from 8.8 xG-0.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Measured riskVery bold

Middling intensityHigh intensity

Fairly physicalPhysically dominant

Mid-blockPresses higher

Mixed responseCounter-presses

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tonali	Corners L and R, 4 short	49	1.5
Trippier	Corners L and R, 5 short	47	1.2
Guimarães	Corners L and R, 4 short	43	3.4
Gordon	Penalties	3	2.3
Guimarães	Penalties	2	1.5
Woltemade	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

21%

EVE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Garner	Corners L and R, 8 short	107	4.7
O'Brien	Throw-ins	59	0.4
Garner	Free kicks	56	1.6
Mykolenko

PRONEW set pieces PROEVE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

43%

Throw-ins

26%

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
2-3
EvertonEverton
Ramsey 31'
Murphy 81'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers