Newcastle Utd vs Arsenal preview, 28 Sep 2025: xG form

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This match has been played.

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ARS favoured away from home, but only just.

NEW31%Draw28%ARS41%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Newcastle1.3Arsenal1.5

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NEW attack

LW0.18

CF0.53

RW0.12

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.12

LB0.06

CB0.29

RB0.00

PRONEW attack report PROARS defence report

Very centralVery wide

PRONEW shape report PROARS shape report

Premier League 2025/2026

GW6

28 Sep 15:30

J. Gillett

ARS attack

LW0.00

CF0.29

RW0.00

CAM0.06

CDM0.12

CM0.06

LB0.00

CB0.29

RB0.12

Last 6, goals vs xG

NEW8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

ARS9 scored from 12.4 xG-3.4

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Mid-blockVery high line

Very cautiousMeasured risk

TechnicalVery technical

Middling physicalityFairly physical

Sits offMixed response

Possession-basedPossession-based

High intensityVery high intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tonali	Corners L and R, 4 short	49	1.5
Trippier	Corners L and R, 5 short	47	1.2
Guimarães	Corners L and R, 4 short	43	3.4
Gordon	Penalties	3	2.3
Guimarães	Penalties	2	1.5
Woltemade	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

21%

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Rice	Corners L and R, 9 short	95	5.5
Rice	Free kicks	75	3.2
Saka	Corners R, 9 short	64	4.3
Madueke

PRONEW set pieces PROARS set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

24%

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
1-2
ArsenalArsenal
Woltemade 33'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers