Manchester Utd vs Aston Villa preview, 15 Mar 2026: xG form

15 Mar 14:00

A. Taylor

This match has been played.

See full analysis

MUN favoured at home, but only just.

MUN49%Draw26%AVL24%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Man Utd1.8Villa1.2

A 0.6 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

MUN attack

LW0.59

CF0.71

RW0.24

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.18

PROMUN attack report PROAVL defence report

Drops right offCounter-presses

PROMUN shape report PROAVL shape report

AVL attack

LW0.12

CF0.29

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.12

CB0.24

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

MUN12 scored from 11.4 xG+0.6

AVL13 scored from 10.9 xG+2.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Patient build-upMixed build-up

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Very centralCentral play

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

MUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 8 short	90	4.4
Fernandes	Free kicks	70	2.3
Mbeumo	Corners R, 5 short	49	2.4
Dalot	Throw-ins	40	1.3
Diallo	Corners R, 1 short	15	0.2
Fernandes	Penalties	6	4.6

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

21%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cash	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	1.6
Cash	Throw-ins	41	0.2
Digne	Corners L and R, 9 short	40	2.4
Tielemans

PROMUN set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

27%

Manchester UtdMan Utd
3-1
Aston VillaVilla
Casemiro 52'
Cunha 70'
Šeško

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers