Fulham vs Arsenal preview, 18 Oct 2025: xG form

18 Oct 16:30

A. Taylor

This match has been played.

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ARS favoured away from home, but only just.

FUL29%Draw29%ARS42%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Fulham1.2Arsenal1.5

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

FUL attack

LW0.31

CF0.25

RW0.38

CAM0.44

CDM0.31

CM0.31

LB0.06

CB0.19

RB0.06

PROFUL attack report PROARS defence report

Deep blockVery high line

PROFUL shape report PROARS shape report

ARS attack

LW0.00

CF0.29

RW0.00

CAM0.06

CDM0.12

CM0.06

LB0.00

CB0.29

RB0.12

Last 6, goals vs xG

FUL4 scored from 7.8 xG-3.8

ARS9 scored from 12.4 xG-3.4

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityVery high intensity

Drops right offSits off

Middling physicalityMiddling physicality

Very cautiousCautious

TechnicalVery technical

Very centralCentral play

Possession-basedPossession-based

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

FUL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Wilson	Corners L and R, 14 short	68	3.5
Lukić	Corners L and R, 9 short	53	1.7
Iwobi	Corners L and R, 5 short	42	2.3
Wilson	Free kicks	24	0.2
Jiménez	Penalties	4	3.0
Robinson	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

25%

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Rice	Corners L and R, 9 short	95	5.5
Rice	Free kicks	75	3.2
Saka	Corners R, 9 short	64	4.3
Madueke

PROFUL set pieces PROARS set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

24%

FulhamFulham
0-1
ArsenalArsenal

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers