Burnley vs Sunderland preview, 23 Aug 2025: xG form

23 Aug 14:00

M. Salisbury

This match has been played.

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SUN favoured away from home, but only just.

BUR33%Draw32%SUN35%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Burnley1.1Sunderland1.2

Next to nothing between them on expected goals, this one could go either way.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BUR attack

LW0.53

CF0.76

RW0.47

CAM0.12

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.06

CB0.24

RB0.18

PROBUR attack report PROSUN defence report

Deep blockPresses higher

PROBUR shape report PROSUN shape report

SUN attack

LW0.35

CF0.29

RW0.29

CAM0.00

CDM0.12

CM0.24

LB0.00

CB0.12

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

BUR5 scored from 4.6 xG+0.4

SUN9 scored from 6.1 xG+2.9

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Measured riskVery bold

Mixed build-upFairly direct

Low intensityMiddling intensity

LightMiddling physicality

Drops right offSits off

Central playEven width

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BUR Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Walker	Throw-ins	83	0.5
Ward-Prowse	Corners L and R, 2 short	38	1.6
Anthony	Corners L and R, 1 short	27	0.8
Hartman	Corners R	22	0.4
Walker	Free kicks	20	0.1
Flemming	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

35%

SUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mukiele	Throw-ins	112	1.8
Xhaka	Free kicks	80	2.2
Xhaka	Corners R, 9 short	61	1.9
Fée

PROBUR set pieces PROSUN set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

32%

Corners

31%

BurnleyBurnley
2-0
SunderlandSunderland
Cullen 46'
Anthony 87'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers