Burnley vs Newcastle Utd preview, 30 Dec 2025: xG form

Fixtures & Results›GW19›BUR 1-3 NEW

Difficulty Ratings

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This match has been played.

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NEW favoured away from home, but only just.

BUR28%Draw29%NEW43%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Burnley1.2Newcastle1.5

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BUR attack

LW0.53

CF0.76

RW0.47

CAM0.12

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.06

CB0.24

RB0.18

PROBUR attack report PRONEW defence report

Very scrappyTechnical

PROBUR shape report PRONEW shape report

NEW attack

LW0.18

CF0.53

RW0.12

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.12

LB0.06

CB0.29

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

BUR5 scored from 4.6 xG+0.4

NEW8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Central playVery wide

Low intensityHigh intensity

Drops right offMixed response

Middling physicalityFairly physical

Possession-basedMixed build-up

Measured riskMeasured risk

Premier League 2025/2026

GW19

30 Dec 19:30

R. Jones

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BUR Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Walker	Throw-ins	83	0.5
Ward-Prowse	Corners L and R, 2 short	38	1.6
Anthony	Corners L and R, 1 short	27	0.8
Hartman	Corners R	22	0.4
Walker	Free kicks	20	0.1
Flemming	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

35%

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tonali	Corners L and R, 4 short	49	1.5
Trippier	Corners L and R, 5 short	47	1.2
Guimarães	Corners L and R, 4 short	43	3.4
Gordon

PROBUR set pieces PRONEW set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

21%

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

BurnleyBurnley
1-3
Newcastle UtdNewcastle
Laurent 22'

Key players

Set-piece takers