Burnley vs Crystal Palace preview, 3 Dec 2025: xG form

03 Dec 19:30

T. Kirk

This match has been played.

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CRY favoured away from home, but only just.

BUR28%Draw30%CRY43%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Burnley1.1C. Palace1.4

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BUR attack

LW0.53

CF0.76

RW0.47

CAM0.12

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.06

CB0.24

RB0.18

PROBUR attack report PROCRY defence report

Drops right offHeavy counter-press

PROBUR shape report PROCRY shape report

CRY attack

LW0.18

CF0.47

RW0.24

CAM0.24

CDM0.12

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.06

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

BUR5 scored from 4.6 xG+0.4

CRY6 scored from 9.3 xG-3.3

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Middling physicalityPhysically dominant

Mixed build-upFairly direct

Measured riskTakes risks

Very scrappyVery scrappy

Low intensityLow intensity

Central playCentral play

Deep blockDeep block

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BUR Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Walker	Throw-ins	83	0.5
Ward-Prowse	Corners L and R, 2 short	38	1.6
Anthony	Corners L and R, 1 short	27	0.8
Hartman	Corners R	22	0.4
Walker	Free kicks	20	0.1
Flemming	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

35%

CRY Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Richards	Throw-ins	101	1.1
Lerma	Throw-ins	50	0.4
Wharton	Corners L and R, 1 short	44	1.6
Mateta

PROBUR set pieces PROCRY set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

49%

Penalties

24%

BurnleyBurnley
0-1
Crystal PalaceC. Palace

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers