Brighton vs Tottenham preview, 20 Sep 2025: xG form

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Richarlison 42'
van Hecke (OG) 81'

Premier League 2025/2026

GW5

20 Sep 14:00

C. Kavanagh

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA44%Draw29%TOT27%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.5Tottenham1.1

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

PROBRI attack report PROTOT defence report

Sits offCounter-presses

PROBRI shape report PROTOT shape report

TOT attack

LW0.59

CF0.35

RW0.18

CAM0.35

CDM0.29

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.18

RB0.12

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

TOT8 scored from 8.8 xG-0.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Sits deeperVery high line

Middling controlTechnical

Possession-basedMixed build-up

CautiousMeasured risk

Very high intensityVery high intensity

Fairly physicalFairly physical

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck	Penalties	3	2.3
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8
Milner	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

TOT Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Porro	Corners L and R, 8 short	73	3.5
Porro	Free kicks	50	1.6
Kudus	Corners R, 5 short	49	1.5
Tel

PROBRI set pieces PROTOT set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

64%

Throw-ins

28%

BrightonBrighton
2-2
TottenhamTottenham
Minteh 7'
Ayari 30'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers