Brighton vs Liverpool preview, 21 Mar 2026: xG form

21 Mar 12:30

D. England

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA39%Draw29%LIV32%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.4Liverpool1.3

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

PROBRI attack report PROLIV defence report

Very lightFairly physical

PROBRI shape report PROLIV shape report

LIV attack

LW0.29

CF0.35

RW0.41

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.29

LB0.29

CB0.12

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

LIV11 scored from 9.9 xG+1.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

High intensityVery high intensity

Mixed responseCounter-presses

Patient build-upPossession-based

Very cautiousCautious

TechnicalVery technical

Even widthEven width

Very high lineVery high line

Player	Rating					Rotation
D. WelbeckCF · BRI	7.0#7	27%	8%	0.53	74%	Medium	0.48
Mohamed SalahWG · LIV	--	25%	12%	0.57	73%	Medium	0.89
C. GakpoWG · LIV	--	21%	9%	0.46	72%	Low	0.18
P. GroßCM · BRI	--	18%	12%	0.40	83%	Medium	0.01
Y. MintehWG · BRI	--	14%	12%	0.51	56%	Medium	0.12
J. HinshelwoodCAM · BRI	--	13%	6%	0.30	69%	Medium	0.18

41 more players

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck	Penalties	3	2.3
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8
Milner	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

LIV Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Szoboszlai	Corners L and R, 12 short	105	4.2
Salah	Corners R, 6 short	58	1.7
Szoboszlai	Free kicks	55	1.5
Gakpo

PROBRI set pieces PROLIV set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

39%

Corners

36%

BrightonBrighton
2-1
LiverpoolLiverpool
Welbeck 13'
Welbeck 55'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers