Brentford vs Tottenham preview, 1 Jan 2026: xG form

01 Jan 20:00

A. Madley

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BRE favoured at home, but only just.

BRE44%Draw29%TOT27%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brentford1.5Tottenham1.1

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BRE attack

LW0.24

CF0.76

RW0.41

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.00

RB0.06

PROBRE attack report PROTOT defence report

Sits offHeavy counter-press

PROBRE shape report PROTOT shape report

TOT attack

LW0.59

CF0.35

RW0.18

CAM0.35

CDM0.29

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.18

RB0.12

Last 6, goals vs xG

BRE7 scored from 9.2 xG-2.2

TOT8 scored from 8.8 xG-0.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Middling intensityVery high intensity

Mixed build-upVery direct

Measured riskTakes risks

Fairly physicalPhysically dominant

Middling controlMiddling control

Sits deeperSits deeper

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Kayode	Throw-ins	170	3.3
Jensen	Corners L and R, 4 short	65	3.0
Damsgaard	Corners L and R, 6 short	44	2.6
Janelt	Corners R, 2 short	37	1.7
Thiago	Penalties	9	6.8
Schade	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

32%

Throw-ins

28%

TOT Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Porro	Corners L and R, 8 short	73	3.5
Porro	Free kicks	50	1.6
Kudus	Corners R, 5 short	49	1.5
Tel

PROBRE set pieces PROTOT set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

64%

Throw-ins

28%

BrentfordBrentford
0-0
TottenhamTottenham

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers