Bournemouth vs Sunderland preview, 28 Feb 2026: xG form

28 Feb 12:30

J. Gillett

This match has been played.

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BOU favoured at home, but only just.

BOU53%Draw26%SUN21%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Bournemouth1.8Sunderland1.1

A 0.7 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BOU attack

LW0.24

CF0.76

RW0.41

CAM0.18

CDM0.18

CM0.35

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.24

PROBOU attack report PROSUN defence report

Sits offHeavy counter-press

PROBOU shape report PROSUN shape report

SUN attack

LW0.35

CF0.29

RW0.29

CAM0.00

CDM0.12

CM0.24

LB0.00

CB0.12

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

BOU10 scored from 10.3 xG-0.3

SUN9 scored from 6.1 xG+2.9

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Middling intensityVery high intensity

LightMiddling physicality

Fairly directVery direct

Takes risksVery bold

Presses higherPresses higher

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BOU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Hill	Throw-ins	64	0.7
Tavernier	Corners L and R, 18 short	62	2.1
Scott	Corners L and R, 2 short	56	1.4
Semenyo	Penalties	2	1.5
Tavernier	Penalties	2	1.5
Kroupi	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

32%

Throw-ins

32%

SUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mukiele	Throw-ins	112	1.8
Xhaka	Free kicks	80	2.2
Xhaka	Corners R, 9 short	61	1.9
Fée

PROBOU set pieces PROSUN set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

32%

Corners

31%

BournemouthBournemouth
1-1
SunderlandSunderland
Evanilson 63'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers