Bournemouth vs Newcastle Utd preview, 21 Sep 2025: xG form

21 Sep 13:00

R. Jones

This match has been played.

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BOU favoured at home, but only just.

BOU48%Draw26%NEW27%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Bournemouth1.8Newcastle1.3

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BOU attack

LW0.24

CF0.76

RW0.41

CAM0.18

CDM0.18

CM0.35

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.24

PROBOU attack report PRONEW defence report

Possession-basedVery direct

PROBOU shape report PRONEW shape report

NEW attack

LW0.18

CF0.53

RW0.12

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.12

LB0.06

CB0.29

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

BOU10 scored from 10.3 xG-0.3

NEW8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Mixed responseHeavy counter-press

Measured riskTakes risks

Middling physicalityFairly physical

High intensityVery high intensity

Mid-blockPresses higher

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BOU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Hill	Throw-ins	64	0.7
Tavernier	Corners L and R, 18 short	62	2.1
Scott	Corners L and R, 2 short	56	1.4
Semenyo	Penalties	2	1.5
Tavernier	Penalties	2	1.5
Kroupi	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

32%

Throw-ins

32%

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tonali	Corners L and R, 4 short	49	1.5
Trippier	Corners L and R, 5 short	47	1.2
Guimarães	Corners L and R, 4 short	43	3.4
Gordon

PROBOU set pieces PRONEW set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

21%

BournemouthBournemouth
0-0
Newcastle UtdNewcastle

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers