Bournemouth vs Liverpool preview, 24 Jan 2026: xG form

24 Jan 17:30

M. Salisbury

This match has been played.

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BOU favoured at home, but only just.

BOU43%Draw26%LIV31%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Bournemouth1.7Liverpool1.4

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BOU attack

LW0.24

CF0.76

RW0.41

CAM0.18

CDM0.18

CM0.35

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.24

PROBOU attack report PROLIV defence report

Patient build-upVery direct

PROBOU shape report PROLIV shape report

LIV attack

LW0.29

CF0.35

RW0.41

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.29

LB0.29

CB0.12

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

BOU10 scored from 10.3 xG-0.3

LIV11 scored from 9.9 xG+1.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very cautiousTakes risks

Mixed responseHeavy counter-press

ScrappyVery technical

Very lightMiddling physicality

High intensityVery high intensity

Presses higherVery high line

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BOU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Hill	Throw-ins	64	0.7
Tavernier	Corners L and R, 18 short	62	2.1
Scott	Corners L and R, 2 short	56	1.4
Semenyo	Penalties	2	1.5
Tavernier	Penalties	2	1.5
Kroupi	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

32%

Throw-ins

32%

LIV Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Szoboszlai	Corners L and R, 12 short	105	4.2
Salah	Corners R, 6 short	58	1.7
Szoboszlai	Free kicks	55	1.5
Gakpo

PROBOU set pieces PROLIV set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

39%

Corners

36%

BournemouthBournemouth
3-2
LiverpoolLiverpool
Evanilson 25'
Jiménez 32'
Adli

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers