Bournemouth vs Aston Villa preview, 7 Feb 2026: xG form

07 Feb 15:00

A. Taylor

This match has been played.

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BOU favoured at home, but only just.

BOU44%Draw27%AVL30%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Bournemouth1.7Villa1.3

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BOU attack

LW0.24

CF0.76

RW0.41

CAM0.18

CDM0.18

CM0.35

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.24

PROBOU attack report PROAVL defence report

Drops right offHeavy counter-press

PROBOU shape report PROAVL shape report

AVL attack

LW0.12

CF0.29

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.12

CB0.24

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

BOU10 scored from 10.3 xG-0.3

AVL13 scored from 10.9 xG+2.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Patient build-upVery direct

Very low intensityVery high intensity

Very centralWide play

Very lightMiddling physicality

Mid-blockPresses higher

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BOU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Hill	Throw-ins	64	0.7
Tavernier	Corners L and R, 18 short	62	2.1
Scott	Corners L and R, 2 short	56	1.4
Semenyo	Penalties	2	1.5
Tavernier	Penalties	2	1.5
Kroupi	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

32%

Throw-ins

32%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cash	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	1.6
Cash	Throw-ins	41	0.2
Digne	Corners L and R, 9 short	40	2.4
Tielemans

PROBOU set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

27%

BournemouthBournemouth
1-1
Aston VillaVilla
Rayan 54'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers