Aston Villa vs Everton preview, 18 Jan 2026: xG form

18 Jan 16:30

T. Harrington

This match has been played.

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AVL favoured at home, but only just.

AVL47%Draw28%EVE25%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Villa1.6Everton1.1

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

AVL attack

LW0.12

CF0.29

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.12

CB0.24

RB0.00

PROAVL attack report PROEVE defence report

Very lightPhysically dominant

PROAVL shape report PROEVE shape report

EVE attack

LW0.06

CF0.47

RW0.35

CAM0.12

CDM0.18

CM0.24

LB0.18

CB0.29

RB0.29

Last 6, goals vs xG

AVL13 scored from 10.9 xG+2.1

EVE8 scored from 8.8 xG-0.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Patient build-upVery direct

Drops right offCounter-presses

Very centralWide play

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Mid-blockPresses higher

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cash	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	1.6
Cash	Throw-ins	41	0.2
Digne	Corners L and R, 9 short	40	2.4
Tielemans	Free kicks	35	0.7
McGinn	Corners L and R, 4 short	28	0.7
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 8 short	26	1.1

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

27%

EVE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Garner	Corners L and R, 8 short	107	4.7
O'Brien	Throw-ins	59	0.4
Garner	Free kicks	56	1.6
Mykolenko

PROAVL set pieces PROEVE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

43%

Throw-ins

26%

Aston VillaVilla
0-1
EvertonEverton

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers