Newcastle Utd vs Chelsea preview, 11 May 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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CHE favoured away from home, but only just.

NEW36%Draw24%CHE40%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Newcastle1.5Chelsea1.6

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PRONEW attack report PROCHE defence report

Very centralWide play

PRONEW shape report PROCHE shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
C. PalmerCAM · CHE	--	27%	19%	0.53	98%	Low	0.15
H. BarnesWG · NEW	--	21%	9%	0.56	59%	Medium	0.25
Pedro NetoWG · CHE	--	19%	17%	0.45	89%	Low	0.20
E. FernándezCM · CHE	--	18%	12%	0.35	93%	Low	0.06
J. MurphyWG · NEW	--	15%	15%	0.49	67%	Low	0.00
Bruno GuimarãesCM · NEW	--	13%	12%	0.27	100%	Low	0.09

47 more players

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Trippier	Corners L and R, 12 short	61	1.6
Hall	Corners L and R, 6 short	56	2.1
Gordon	Corners L and R, 8 short	53	1.2
Hall	Free kicks	32	0.9
Isak	Penalties	4	3.0
Gordon	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

26%

CHE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernández	Corners L and R, 17 short	75	1.3
Palmer	Corners L and R, 22 short	74	2.9
Neto	Corners L and R, 19 short	55	1.0
Palmer

PRONEW set pieces PROCHE set pieces

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
2-0
ChelseaChelsea
Tonali 1'
Guimarães 89'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers