Newcastle Utd vs Arsenal preview, 2 Nov 2024: xG form

02 Nov 12:30

J. Brooks

This match has been played.

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ARS favoured away from home, but only just.

NEW29%Draw24%ARS47%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Newcastle1.3Arsenal1.7

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PRONEW attack report PROARS defence report

Very cautiousTakes risks

PRONEW shape report PROARS shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

NEW7 scored from 9.6 xG-2.6

ARS12 scored from 11.5 xG+0.5

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Middling controlVery technical

Central playWide play

Presses higherVery high line

Sits offMixed response

Patient build-upPossession-based

High intensityHigh intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Trippier	Corners L and R, 12 short	61	1.6
Hall	Corners L and R, 6 short	56	2.1
Gordon	Corners L and R, 8 short	53	1.2
Hall	Free kicks	32	0.9
Isak	Penalties	4	3.0
Gordon	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

26%

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Rice	Corners L and R, 11 short	108	5.6
Saka	Corners R, 5 short	64	3.6
Rice	Free kicks	52	1.3
Ødegaard

PRONEW set pieces PROARS set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

56%

Throw-ins

23%

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
1-0
ArsenalArsenal
Isak 11'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers