Manchester City vs Aston Villa preview, 22 Apr 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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MCI favoured at home, but only just.

MCI50%Draw24%AVL26%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Man City1.7Villa1.2

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROMCI attack report PROAVL defence report

Sits deeperPresses higher

PROMCI shape report PROAVL shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
Omar MarmoushCF · MCI	--	32%	16%	0.69	80%	Medium	0.09
O. WatkinsCF · AVL	--	31%	9%	0.57	81%	Medium	0.72
E. HaalandCF · MCI	--	26%	5%	0.88	40%	High	0.25
M. RogersCAM · AVL	--	19%	9%	0.36	81%	Low	0.10
SavinhoWG · MCI	--	16%	13%	0.54	59%	Medium	0.39
N. O'ReillyFB · MCI	--	15%	9%	0.40	62%	Medium	0.01

43 more players

MCI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Bruyne	Corners L and R, 33 short	94	2.7
Gündoğan	Corners L and R, 9 short	46	1.7
Foden	Corners L and R, 6 short	46	2.3
Bruyne	Free kicks	20	0.1
Foden	Free kicks	19	0.5
Haaland	Penalties	4	3.0

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

26%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 11 short	84	3.1
Tielemans	Free kicks	57	2.7
Watkins	Penalties	2	1.5
Asensio

PROMCI set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Manchester CityMan City
2-1
Aston VillaVilla
Silva 6'
Nunes 93'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers