Crystal Palace vs Brighton preview, 5 Apr 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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CRY favoured at home, but only just.

CRY39%Draw25%BHA36%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

C. Palace1.4Brighton1.4

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROCRY attack report PROBRI defence report

Very scrappyTechnical

PROCRY shape report PROBRI shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
I. SarrWG · CRY	--	31%	12%	0.53	93%	Low	0.31
J. MatetaCF · CRY	--	26%	7%	0.53	70%	Low	0.14
K. MitomaWG · BRI	--	22%	10%	0.36	99%	Low	0.11
E. NketiahCF · CRY	--	18%	4%	0.59	41%	High	0.72
G. RutterCAM · BRI	--	16%	5%	0.43	50%	Medium	0.02
D. MuñozFB · CRY	--	15%	11%	0.27	100%	Low	0.06

37 more players

CRY Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Eze	Free kicks	62	1.8
Eze	Corners L and R, 10 short	61	1.3
Hughes	Corners L and R, 7 short	54	3.7
Lerma	Throw-ins	39	0.5
Mateta	Penalties	2	1.5
Eze	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

49%

Throw-ins

19%

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro

PROCRY set pieces PROBRI set pieces

Crystal PalaceC. Palace
2-1
BrightonBrighton
Mateta 2'
Muñoz 54'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers