Chelsea vs Manchester Utd preview, 16 May 2025: xG form

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This match has been played.

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CHE favoured at home, but only just.

CHE49%Draw24%MUN27%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Chelsea1.7Man Utd1.2

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

CHE attack

PROCHE attack report PROMUN defence report

Very lightFairly physical

PROCHE shape report PROMUN shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
C. PalmerCAM · CHE	--	29%	20%	0.57	100%	Low	0.26
Pedro NetoWG · CHE	--	20%	18%	0.46	91%	Low	0.13
E. FernándezCM · CHE	--	19%	12%	0.36	97%	Low	0.17
R. HøjlundCF · MUN	--	19%	5%	0.42	63%	Medium	0.06
Bruno FernandesCAM · MUN	--	13%	20%	0.44	82%	Medium	0.36
Marc CucurellaFB · CHE	--	11%	5%	0.17	99%	Low	0.08

51 more players

CHE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernández	Corners L and R, 17 short	75	1.3
Palmer	Corners L and R, 22 short	74	2.9
Neto	Corners L and R, 19 short	55	1.0
Palmer	Free kicks	27	1.6
Fernández	Free kicks	24	0.9
Palmer	Penalties	5	3.8

Share of set-play xG

Free kicks

30%

Corners

29%

MUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 14 short	91	2.7
Fernandes	Free kicks	69	2.8
Eriksen	Corners L and R, 13 short	62	1.8
Diallo

PROCHE set pieces PROMUN set pieces

ChelseaChelsea
1-0
Manchester UtdMan Utd
Cucurella 70'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers