Brentford vs Brighton preview, 19 Apr 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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BRI favoured away from home, but only just.

BRE32%Draw24%BHA44%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brentford1.4Brighton1.7

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBRE attack report PROBRI defence report

ScrappyTechnical

PROBRE shape report PROBRI shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
D. WelbeckCF · BRI	--	25%	6%	0.52	68%	Medium	0.28
Y. MintehWG · BRI	--	21%	12%	0.61	59%	Medium	0.13
K. SchadeWG · BRE	--	20%	8%	0.50	62%	Low	0.13
K. MitomaWG · BRI	--	17%	8%	0.43	63%	Medium	0.26
K. Lewis-PotterFB · BRE	--	17%	9%	0.35	79%	Low	0.03
Y. AyariCM · BRI	--	14%	8%	0.30	79%	Medium	0.01

36 more players

BRE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mbeumo	Corners L and R, 15 short	86	4.0
Damsgaard	Corners L, 8 short	59	1.5
Mbeumo	Free kicks	39	0.7
Schade	Throw-ins	34	0.5
Damsgaard	Free kicks	27	0.8
Mbeumo	Penalties	6	4.6

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

41%

Corners

26%

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro

PROBRE set pieces PROBRI set pieces

BrentfordBrentford
4-2
BrightonBrighton
Mbeumo 8'
Mbeumo 47'
Wissa

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers