Aston Villa vs Tottenham preview, 16 May 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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AVL favoured at home, but only just.

AVL48%Draw23%TOT29%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Villa1.8Tottenham1.3

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROAVL attack report PROTOT defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PROAVL shape report PROTOT shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
O. WatkinsCF · AVL	--	45%	13%	0.85	87%	Low	0.41
M. RogersCAM · AVL	--	25%	16%	0.54	84%	Low	0.27
M. TelWG · TOT	--	18%	10%	0.42	73%	Medium	0.02
D. SolankeCF · TOT	--	16%	3%	0.49	40%	High	0.59
W. OdobertWG · TOT	--	13%	7%	0.33	64%	Medium	0.28
D. KulusevskiCM · TOT	--	13%	9%	0.33	72%	Medium	0.23

44 more players

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 11 short	84	3.1
Tielemans	Free kicks	57	2.7
Watkins	Penalties	2	1.5
Asensio	Penalties	2	1.5
Tielemans	Penalties	1	0.8
Rashford	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

38%

Free kicks

23%

TOT Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Kulusevski	Corners R, 32 short	59	1.0
Maddison	Corners L and R, 8 short	58	2.3
Porro	Corners L and R, 5 short	54	1.8
Heung-Min

PROAVL set pieces PROTOT set pieces

Aston VillaVilla
2-0
TottenhamTottenham
Konsa 58'
Kamara 72'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers