Arsenal vs Newcastle Utd preview, 18 May 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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ARS clear favourites at home.

ARS54%Draw22%NEW23%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Arsenal1.9Newcastle1.2

A 0.7 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROARS attack report PRONEW defence report

Very cautiousTakes risks

PROARS shape report PRONEW shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
B. SakaWG · ARS	--	32%	25%	0.82	81%	Medium	0.23
Gabriel MartinelliWG · ARS	--	29%	18%	0.68	79%	Low	0.19
Mikel MerinoCM · ARS	--	22%	9%	0.61	57%	High	0.65
M. ØdegaardCM · ARS	--	17%	23%	0.49	92%	Low	0.01
H. BarnesWG · NEW	--	17%	7%	0.43	61%	Medium	0.07
J. MurphyWG · NEW	--	11%	14%	0.37	74%	Low	0.06

42 more players

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Rice	Corners L and R, 11 short	108	5.6
Saka	Corners R, 5 short	64	3.6
Rice	Free kicks	52	1.3
Ødegaard	Corners R, 1 short	37	1.3
Ødegaard	Penalties	1	0.8
Saka	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

56%

Throw-ins

23%

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Trippier	Corners L and R, 12 short	61	1.6
Hall	Corners L and R, 6 short	56	2.1
Gordon	Corners L and R, 8 short	53	1.2
Hall

PROARS set pieces PRONEW set pieces

ArsenalArsenal
1-0
Newcastle UtdNewcastle
Rice 54'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers