Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace preview, 30 Mar 2024: xG form

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This match has been played.

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NFO favoured at home, but only just.

NFO43%Draw27%CRY30%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Forest1.5C. Palace1.2

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NFO attack

LW0.34

CF0.71

RW0.32

CAM0.39

CDM0.16

CM0.53

LB0.03

CB0.18

RB0.16

PRONFO attack report PROCRY defence report

Mixed responseCounter-presses

PRONFO shape report PROCRY shape report

CRY attack

LW0.39

CF0.50

RW0.37

CAM0.34

CDM0.16

CM0.29

LB0.11

CB0.13

RB0.21

Last 6, goals vs xG

NFO9 scored from 11.9 xG-2.9

CRY20 scored from 11.5 xG+8.5

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityLow intensity

Mixed build-upFairly direct

Fairly physicalPhysically dominant

Deep blockSits deeper

Takes risksTakes risks

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

Premier League 2023/2024

GW30

30 Mar 15:00

C. Kavanagh

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Gibbs-White	Corners L and R, 9 short	97	3.3
Gibbs-White	Free kicks	80	3.2
Niakhaté	Throw-ins	44	0.7
Aina	Throw-ins	26	0.7
Danilo	Corners R	18	0.6
Gibbs-White	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

26%

CRY Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Eze	Corners L and R, 15 short	74	3.1
Eze	Free kicks	42	2.0
Olise	Corners L and R, 4 short	40	0.7
Mateta

PRONFO set pieces PROCRY set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Free kicks

26%

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Nottingham ForestForest
1-1
Crystal PalaceC. Palace
Wood 60'

Set-piece takers