Nottingham Forest vs Brentford preview, 1 Oct 2023: xG form

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This match has been played.

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NFO favoured at home, but only just.

NFO42%Draw25%BRE33%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Forest1.6Brentford1.4

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NFO attack

LW0.34

CF0.71

RW0.32

CAM0.39

CDM0.16

CM0.53

LB0.03

CB0.18

RB0.16

PRONFO attack report PROBRE defence report

Very low intensityHigh intensity

PRONFO shape report PROBRE shape report

Premier League 2023/2024

GW7

01 Oct 13:00

P. Tierney

BRE attack

LW0.37

CF0.76

RW0.42

CAM0.16

CDM0.13

CM0.32

LB0.24

CB0.26

RB0.21

Last 6, goals vs xG

NFO9 scored from 11.9 xG-2.9

BRE11 scored from 7.6 xG+3.4

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Mixed responseHeavy counter-press

Fairly directVery direct

Fairly physicalPhysically dominant

Takes risksTakes risks

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Gibbs-White	Corners L and R, 9 short	97	3.3
Gibbs-White	Free kicks	80	3.2
Niakhaté	Throw-ins	44	0.7
Aina	Throw-ins	26	0.7
Danilo	Corners R	18	0.6
Gibbs-White	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

26%

BRE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Jensen	Corners L and R, 15 short	65	3.0
Jensen	Throw-ins	60	0.9
Mbeumo	Corners L and R, 9 short	44	2.1
Jensen

PRONFO set pieces PROBRE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

43%

Throw-ins

26%

Nottingham ForestForest
1-1
BrentfordBrentford
Domínguez 64'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers