Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal preview, 30 Jan 2024: xG form

30 Jan 19:30

S. Hooper

This match has been played.

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ARS favoured away from home, but only just.

NFO24%Draw26%ARS50%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Forest1.0Arsenal1.6

A 0.6 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NFO attack

LW0.34

CF0.71

RW0.32

CAM0.39

CDM0.16

CM0.53

LB0.03

CB0.18

RB0.16

PRONFO attack report PROARS defence report

Deep blockVery high line

PRONFO shape report PROARS shape report

ARS attack

LW0.11

CF0.32

RW0.13

CAM0.13

CDM0.13

CM0.13

LB0.11

CB0.08

RB0.08

Last 6, goals vs xG

NFO9 scored from 11.9 xG-2.9

ARS16 scored from 14.2 xG+1.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityHigh intensity

Very centralWide play

ScrappyVery technical

Very cautiousTakes risks

LightFairly physical

Possession-basedFairly direct

Mixed responseCounter-presses

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Gibbs-White	Corners L and R, 9 short	97	3.3
Gibbs-White	Free kicks	80	3.2
Niakhaté	Throw-ins	44	0.7
Aina	Throw-ins	26	0.7
Danilo	Corners R	18	0.6
Gibbs-White	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

26%

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Saka	Corners R, 16 short	119	6.6
Rice	Corners L, 9 short	47	2.5
Saka	Penalties	6	4.6
Ødegaard

PRONFO set pieces PROARS set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Penalties

28%

Nottingham ForestForest
1-2
ArsenalArsenal
Awoniyi 88'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers