Luton Town vs Arsenal preview, 5 Dec 2023: xG form

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This match has been played.

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ARS clear favourites away from home.

LUT14%Draw19%ARS66%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Luton0.9Arsenal2.2

A 1.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-three win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

Luton Town attack

PROLuton Town attack report PROARS defence report

Very centralVery wide

PROLuton Town shape report PROARS shape report

Martinelli 19'
Jesus 44'
Havertz 59'
Rice 96'

Premier League 2023/2024

GW15

05 Dec 20:15

S. Barrott

ARS attack

LW0.11

CF0.32

RW0.13

CAM0.13

CDM0.13

CM0.13

LB0.11

CB0.08

RB0.08

Last 6, goals vs xG

LUT7 scored from 5.8 xG+1.2

ARS16 scored from 14.2 xG+1.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very cautiousVery bold

Very scrappyVery technical

Possession-basedVery direct

LightPhysically dominant

Mid-blockVery high line

Middling intensityHigh intensity

Counter-pressesCounter-presses

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

Luton Town Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Doughty	Corners L and R, 2 short	152	6.2
Doughty	Free kicks	70	1.7
Barkley	Free kicks	43	1.1
Doughty	Throw-ins	16	0.1
Giles	Corners L and R	15	0.4
Morris	Penalties	5	3.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

21%

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Saka	Corners R, 16 short	119	6.6
Rice	Corners L, 9 short	47	2.5
Saka	Penalties	6	4.6
Ødegaard

PROLuton Town set pieces PROARS set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Penalties

28%

Luton TownLuton
3-4
ArsenalArsenal
Osho 24'
Adebayo 48'
Barkley

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers