Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest preview, 29 Oct 2023: xG form

29 Oct 14:00

C. Kavanagh

This match has been played.

See full analysis

LIV clear favourites at home.

LIV67%Draw18%NFO15%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Liverpool2.4Forest1.1

A 1.4 xG edge, roughly a two-in-three win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

LIV attack

LW0.24

CF0.42

RW0.29

CAM0.03

CDM0.03

CM0.16

LB0.16

CB0.21

RB0.13

PROLIV attack report PRONFO defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PROLIV shape report PRONFO shape report

NFO attack

LW0.34

CF0.71

RW0.32

CAM0.39

CDM0.16

CM0.53

LB0.03

CB0.18

RB0.16

Last 6, goals vs xG

LIV14 scored from 16.9 xG-2.9

NFO9 scored from 11.9 xG-2.9

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Deep blockVery high line

Central playWide play

Mixed responseHeavy counter-press

Mixed build-upFairly direct

Fairly physicalFairly physical

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

LIV Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Robertson	Corners L and R, 4 short	91	4.1
Alexander-Arnold	Corners L and R, 9 short	71	3.0
Szoboszlai	Corners L and R, 12 short	66	2.1
Salah	Penalties	7	5.3
Núñez	Penalties	1	0.8
Allister	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

22%

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Gibbs-White	Corners L and R, 9 short	97	3.3
Gibbs-White	Free kicks	80	3.2
Niakhaté	Throw-ins	44	0.7
Aina

PROLIV set pieces PRONFO set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

26%

LiverpoolLiverpool
3-0
Nottingham ForestForest
Jota 30'
Núñez 34'
Salah

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers