Chelsea vs Newcastle Utd preview, 11 Mar 2024: xG form

11 Mar 20:00

J. Brooks

This match has been played.

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CHE favoured at home, but only just.

CHE46%Draw22%NEW32%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Chelsea2.0Newcastle1.7

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

CHE attack

LW0.34

CF0.61

RW0.34

CAM0.18

CDM0.13

CM0.42

LB0.08

CB0.16

RB0.16

PROCHE attack report PRONEW defence report

Low intensityVery high intensity

PROCHE shape report PRONEW shape report

NEW attack

LW0.37

CF0.79

RW0.55

CAM0.32

CDM0.00

CM0.29

LB0.11

CB0.11

RB0.11

Last 6, goals vs xG

CHE16 scored from 11.0 xG+5.0

NEW16 scored from 14.4 xG+1.6

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very centralEven width

Patient build-upMixed build-up

Sits deeperPresses higher

Drops right offSits off

Very cautiousMeasured risk

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

CHE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mudryk	Corners L and R, 11 short	54	0.9
Palmer	Corners L and R, 17 short	54	1.2
Gallagher	Corners L and R, 13 short	43	1.3
Palmer	Penalties	9	6.8
Fernández	Penalties	2	1.5
Madueke	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Penalties

39%

Free kicks

21%

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Trippier	Corners L and R, 12 short	111	4.1
Trippier	Free kicks	73	3.3
Gordon	Corners L and R, 11 short	48	1.8
Isak

PROCHE set pieces PRONEW set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

29%

Free kicks

27%

ChelseaChelsea
3-2
Newcastle UtdNewcastle
Jackson 5'
Palmer 56'
Mudryk

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers