Chelsea vs Luton Town preview, 25 Aug 2023: xG form

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This match has been played.

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CHE clear favourites at home.

CHE66%Draw18%LUT16%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Chelsea2.5Luton1.2

A 1.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-three win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

CHE attack

LW0.34

CF0.61

RW0.34

CAM0.18

CDM0.13

CM0.42

LB0.08

CB0.16

RB0.16

PROCHE attack report PROLuton Town defence report

Very centralVery wide

PROCHE shape report PROLuton Town shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

CHE16 scored from 11.0 xG+5.0

LUT7 scored from 5.8 xG+1.2

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very cautiousVery bold

Patient build-upVery direct

Very lightPhysically dominant

Drops right offCounter-presses

Very scrappyTechnical

Sits deeperMid-block

Low intensityMiddling intensity

Premier League 2023/2024

GW3

25 Aug 19:00

R. Jones

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

CHE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mudryk	Corners L and R, 11 short	54	0.9
Palmer	Corners L and R, 17 short	54	1.2
Gallagher	Corners L and R, 13 short	43	1.3
Palmer	Penalties	9	6.8
Fernández	Penalties	2	1.5
Madueke	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Penalties

39%

Free kicks

21%

Luton Town Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Doughty	Corners L and R, 2 short	152	6.2
Doughty	Free kicks	70	1.7
Barkley	Free kicks	43	1.1
Doughty

PROCHE set pieces PROLuton Town set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

21%

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

ChelseaChelsea
3-0
Luton TownLuton
Sterling 16'
Sterling 68'
Jackson

Key players

Set-piece takers