Aston Villa vs Luton Town preview, 29 Oct 2023: xG form

29 Oct 14:00

J. Brooks

This match has been played.

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AVL clear favourites at home.

AVL67%Draw18%LUT16%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Villa2.5Luton1.2

A 1.4 xG edge, roughly a two-in-three win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

AVL attack

LW0.24

CF0.87

RW0.29

CAM0.29

CDM0.18

CM0.13

LB0.24

CB0.18

RB0.18

PROAVL attack report PROLuton Town defence report

Very lightPhysically dominant

PROAVL shape report PROLuton Town shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

AVL10 scored from 8.0 xG+2.0

LUT7 scored from 5.8 xG+1.2

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Patient build-upVery direct

Drops right offCounter-presses

Central playVery wide

Very scrappyTechnical

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Luiz	Corners L and R, 25 short	100	2.5
Luiz	Free kicks	56	2.2
McGinn	Corners L and R, 6 short	37	1.4
Digne	Corners L and R, 5 short	35	1.4
Bailey	Corners L and R, 9 short	30	1.7
Luiz	Penalties	4	3.0

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Throw-ins

28%

Luton Town Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Doughty	Corners L and R, 2 short	152	6.2
Doughty	Free kicks	70	1.7
Barkley	Free kicks	43	1.1
Doughty

PROAVL set pieces PROLuton Town set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

21%

Aston VillaVilla
3-1
Luton TownLuton
McGinn 16'
Diaby 48'
Lockyer (OG)

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers